Young Population vs Growth Rate

Demographic momentum and future growth

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Countries with a high proportion of young people (under 14) tend to have higher population growth rates — a phenomenon called demographic momentum. Even if fertility rates drop, a large youth cohort will continue producing population growth for decades as they reach childbearing age. This is why Africa is projected to double its population by 2050.

Population Under 14 (%) vs Growth Rate (%/year)

190 countries with available data

Correlation (r)

0.711

Strong positive

Countries

190

with both indicators

Avg Population Under 14

27%

global average

Avg Growth Rate

1.2%

global average

Key Insight

Countries where 40%+ of the population is under 14 grow at 2-3% annually. Aging nations with <15% youth are typically shrinking. This age structure locks in decades of future growth.

Regional Averages

RegionCountriesAvg Population Under 14Avg Growth Rate
Africa
5438%2.0%
Asia
4426%1.1%
Americas
4421%0.8%
Europe
2916%0.7%
Oceania
1929%0.9%