Young Population vs Growth Rate

How age structure relates to population growth

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Countries with a high proportion of young people (under 14) tend to have higher population growth rates. Demographers call this demographic momentum — when a large youth cohort reaches childbearing age, population growth tends to continue even if fertility rates decline, though the extent depends on how much fertility falls. This is one reason many projections show continued growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, though actual outcomes depend on future fertility trends, mortality, and migration.

Population Under 14 (%) vs Growth Rate (%/year)

173 countries with available data

Correlation (r)

0.522

Moderate positive

Countries

173

with both indicators

Avg Population Under 14

27%

global average

Avg Growth Rate

1.5%

global average

Key Insight

Countries where 40%+ of the population is under 14 tend to grow at 2-3% annually, while aging nations with less than 15% youth are often shrinking. A young age structure creates momentum toward continued growth, but the pace depends on future fertility and mortality trends.

Regional Averages

RegionCountriesAvg Population Under 14Avg Growth Rate
Africa
5338%2.2%
Asia
4226%1.7%
Americas
3622%0.9%
Europe
2915%0.8%
Oceania
1329%1.2%